The ongoing US-China trade dispute will continue to play a major role in dampening the US economy. According to Benjamin Tal’s recent article, more and more studies are debunking Trump’s claim that Chinese companies are bearing the brunt of the tariffs. While in fact, corporate America and to a lesser extent, consumers have absorbed the bulk of the damage.
The biggest issues are:
- Slowing China’s technological advance
- Protection of intellectual property
- A preference that US companies do not have to share their secrets in order to play ball in China
- More equitable tariff structure
A short list, but in truth a long and uphill battle to get the Chinese superpower to play nice in the sandbox. This “trade fog” will linger for some time, and in turn, lead to a continued muted economy.
What does this mean for you?
As the US and other central banks in Europe consider cutting their target interest rates in the near term this will eventually play a decisive factor for the Bank of Canada. According to Avery Shenfeld’s recent article, expect a potential cut early next year if the rest of the global economies continue to follow this current path.